AI Can Improve Weather Predictions if Used with Traditional Methods
2024-10-22
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1Weather researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to improve existing weather prediction methods.
2But, experts say the AI tools currently face limitations and should be used along with traditional prediction methods to be most effective.
3AI systems trained to predict, or forecast, weather events are now being used by many government agencies and organizations worldwide.
4Such systems aim to produce weather predictions faster and at a lower cost than traditional forecasting methods.
5One weather predicting system that has shown promise is the Google-financed GraphCast method.
6This machine learning-based system trains directly on weather data that has already been collected and examined.
7Such methods have demonstrated an ability to outperform traditional forecasting systems.
8The system works by combining past weather predictions with modern forecasting models to provide the most complete picture of weather and climate.
9In Europe, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been using AI prediction tools since January.
10The organization provides detailed weather forecasts four times per day to nations across Europe.
11The ECMWF technology is called the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS).
12The group describes the system as a "data-driven" forecasting model.
13It is designed to make many predictions quickly, including for extreme events involving powerful storms and heatwaves.
14AI-supported data from the ECMWF correctly predicted intense rains last month across parts of Europe that resulted in widespread flooding.
15But while the predictions were right, destruction caused by the flooding could not be avoided.
16Experts told Reuters this is largely because it is still difficult to gather and fully utilize some collected weather data.
17In addition, there is a need to strengthen and improve current AI models used to predict weather.
18Andrew Charlton-Perez is a professor of meteorology - the scientific study of weather processes - at the University of Reading in Britain.
19He told Reuters, "In some cases and for some variables, AI models can beat physics-based models, but in other cases vice versa."
20Charlton-Perez said one problem is that the effectiveness of an AI model is based on the information it is given.
21Weather disasters can be harder to predict if there is too little data to enter into AI systems.
22This can also be true if extreme events happen repeatedly at different times of the year or in different areas.
23Charlton-Perez said he thinks the best use of AI-based weather forecasts would be to use them in combination with traditional weather predicting tools.
24This, he noted, could utilize AI data to produce weather predictions based on large sets of information collected from multiple sources.
25Thomas Wostal is with the weather observatory GeoSphere in Austria.
26He told Reuters his group's models correctly predicted 300 to 400 millimeters of local rains in September.
27And records show that same amount actually fell in the storms.
28But scientists say even in cases where predictions are correct, effective communication is needed to get the information out to communities and local officials so they can effectively prepare.
29Shruti Nath is a research assistant in weather prediction and climate at Britain's Oxford University.
30She told Reuters, "I think what happened with (the recent floods) ... is that it's so rare - a one in 150- to 200-year event - that even if the weather models capture it, there's a reasonable degree of uncertainty."
31Nath said AI-supported forecasts need to be clearly communicated to the public in a way that warns of the severity and possible destruction of extreme events.
32This way, people might see the importance of taking action before severe weather happens in order to prevent costly cleanup and recovery efforts.
33I'm Bryan Lynn.
1Weather researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to improve existing weather prediction methods. But, experts say the AI tools currently face limitations and should be used along with traditional prediction methods to be most effective. 2AI systems trained to predict, or forecast, weather events are now being used by many government agencies and organizations worldwide. Such systems aim to produce weather predictions faster and at a lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. 3One weather predicting system that has shown promise is the Google-financed GraphCast method. This machine learning-based system trains directly on weather data that has already been collected and examined. Such methods have demonstrated an ability to outperform traditional forecasting systems. 4The system works by combining past weather predictions with modern forecasting models to provide the most complete picture of weather and climate. 5In Europe, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been using AI prediction tools since January. The organization provides detailed weather forecasts four times per day to nations across Europe. 6The ECMWF technology is called the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS). The group describes the system as a "data-driven" forecasting model. It is designed to make many predictions quickly, including for extreme events involving powerful storms and heatwaves. 7AI-supported data from the ECMWF correctly predicted intense rains last month across parts of Europe that resulted in widespread flooding. But while the predictions were right, destruction caused by the flooding could not be avoided. 8Experts told Reuters this is largely because it is still difficult to gather and fully utilize some collected weather data. In addition, there is a need to strengthen and improve current AI models used to predict weather. 9Andrew Charlton-Perez is a professor of meteorology - the scientific study of weather processes - at the University of Reading in Britain. He told Reuters, "In some cases and for some variables, AI models can beat physics-based models, but in other cases vice versa." 10Charlton-Perez said one problem is that the effectiveness of an AI model is based on the information it is given. Weather disasters can be harder to predict if there is too little data to enter into AI systems. This can also be true if extreme events happen repeatedly at different times of the year or in different areas. 11Charlton-Perez said he thinks the best use of AI-based weather forecasts would be to use them in combination with traditional weather predicting tools. This, he noted, could utilize AI data to produce weather predictions based on large sets of information collected from multiple sources. 12Thomas Wostal is with the weather observatory GeoSphere in Austria. He told Reuters his group's models correctly predicted 300 to 400 millimeters of local rains in September. And records show that same amount actually fell in the storms. 13But scientists say even in cases where predictions are correct, effective communication is needed to get the information out to communities and local officials so they can effectively prepare. 14Shruti Nath is a research assistant in weather prediction and climate at Britain's Oxford University. She told Reuters, "I think what happened with (the recent floods) ... is that it's so rare - a one in 150- to 200-year event - that even if the weather models capture it, there's a reasonable degree of uncertainty." 15Nath said AI-supported forecasts need to be clearly communicated to the public in a way that warns of the severity and possible destruction of extreme events. This way, people might see the importance of taking action before severe weather happens in order to prevent costly cleanup and recovery efforts. 16I'm Bryan Lynn. 17Reuters reported this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English. 18_____________________________________________ 19Words in This Story 20utilize - v. to use something in an effective way 21variable - n. a number, amount or situation that can change 22vice versa - adv. used to say that what you have just said is also the true in the opposite way